Blame friendly Facebook banter for the sudden unaffordability of housing? A paper from four economists demonstrates that interactions with distant friends who are seeing high increases in home prices makes people more likely to buy real estate. Furthermore, they are slightly more likely to buy bigger houses and to pay more for them. The paper’s authors — NYU professors Theresa Kuchler and Johannes Stroebel; Ruiqing Cao, a graduate student at Harvard, and Michael Bailey, an economist at Facebook — reached their conclusions by analyzing more than 1,200 Facebook accounts in Los Angeles County, noting their interactions with far-flung friends and matching those users, on an anonymized basis, to property transaction records. They found that a renter whose friends report housing price increases that are 5 percentage points higher than average is herself 3.1 percent more likely to buy a house. She is likely to pay 3.3 percent more for it than otherwise, and it will be 1.7 percent larger, the paper found. A 3 percent increase doesn’t seem like much, but it’s actually a signifiant number. For perspective, having a child — one of the strongest factors in homeownership — is only twice as likely to make a renter buy as talking with friends blessed with property values, according to CNBC . The reverse is also true, NYU’s Kuchler explained. “Talking to your friends affects your beliefs about housing market investments in the direction of your friends’ experiences (so it’s not always in the direction of being willing to pay more),” she wrote. “[I]f you talk a lot to friends who live in areas where house prices have been more stable and not going up and who have therefore experienced relatively smaller house price increases, you are relatively less willing to spend lots on real estate.” It’s particularly striking that the effects hold across distant geographies — which the researchers demonstrated by excluding interactions between friends living close to each other.
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